What’s for sale today in JP with parking? And how much will it cost to buy?
Two Bedrooms Condominiums are by far the most popular housing sold in Jamaica Plain in any given year.
While median prices are the most accessible data that are available to both buyers and sellers, we don’t believe that “most accessible” means most helpful. We explain to our clients that median prices are an economic indicator and give the media a way to discuss the real estate market in a few second on broadcasts and in headlines. But median prices do not provide any guidance to a buyer or seller about the market value of a particular property at a particular time.
Context is crucial to arrive at a reasonable expectation of market value.
We find that a buyer will look at about 5-10 properties before they make a buying decision. A seller will generally be familiar with the properties in their immediate neighborhood. A seller may also know of a particular property, often an unusual property that sold for an unusually high price.
But can this perspective help a client see the state of mind of the buyer that they will either compete against, or the buyer that will buy the home of the seller? It is hard to believe that that buyer can make an informed decision armed with only that information. The troubling part of this process for the buyer, is that the buyer determines the price. What if they paid too much?
Can a buyer see what we see as agents? Or even see more than most agents?
We find that buyers might intimately know a small slice of the market, but not have a clear picture of the whole market. In looking at this chart, if a buyer knew that over half of the two bedroom units with parking that are available in JP are priced in the $700k ish range, would it change their perspective of the market? (Incidentally, we find that the bulk of properties in a given set vary in price by only 15%.) Whether they should be excited to see units available at lower prices? Or question how a two bedroom condo could sell for almost $1M?
With what looks like few choices available, some buyers will wait until the unicorn appears that is that “good deal” that is somehow a wonderful unit priced at an unbelievable price.
Looking at the whole market means looking at how many units might come to market before the buyer’s lease expires, or the new job starts, or the patience they have with the search.
How many opportunities are there in a year to buy a two bedroom condo in JP? About 130.
Looking at the sales for 2019 overall, we notice two things. Pricing seems to be running a little higher in 2020 than it did in 2019. Which is typically to be expected. We also see that while there is only one $1M condo currently available, it isn’t a unique outlier.
How are sales for 2020? At halfway through the year, we are seeing about half the units that we would expect for the year. Seventy one two bedroom units with parking have sold so far.
So how many opportunities for a buyer that wants to spend less than $600k? Less than $700k?
The expectation would be about 25 units under $600k and an additional 15 below $700k for the rest of the year. I will note that one has to wonder if the ones in the far cheapest end might be sketchily inexpensive for a reason.
What makes a unit be the cheapest two bedroom unit sold?
Does the lowest price make a unit the magical unicorn? 1010 Centre Street is the lowest priced two bedroom with parking sold this year in JP. I am going to guess that a major reason is the $800 per month condo fee. With a more typical condo fee of $200 per month, that would leave an extra $600 per month for lifestyle, savings, or housing upgrade. That could cover the cost of a new car or some fabulous travel.
And the next unit on the low end? It was for sale for 474 days. We can’t know all of the reasons now, but the condo fee there was $576 per month. Incredibly high for Jamaica Plain.
So, it is important to keep in mind that sometimes properties are the cheapest ones for a reason. People don’t want them as much as they want others. Perhaps there is a good reason to not want them.
You must be asking…what do those $1M+ units look like?
68 Seaverns Avenue sold for $1.11M. Look at that deck!
What is the take away? Could I tell you what to spend on a two bedroom unit in Jamaican Plain? Or another home? Or another location? As with many things: It depends. What we can do is talk with you about your specific goals and needs, and help you to understand where to look for your home and what you might expect to pay for it. And crucially, to be able to know when you are in danger of overpaying and to recognize the unicorn if you find it.
What could you buy this week in Jamaica Plain? Here are a few great units of different sizes/price ranges.
Real Estate might not be considered rocket science….but maybe it should be.
What other two bedroom plus units are for sale in Jamaica Plain?